Task 3.1 State of the Art

The purpose of this task is to get an overview of the current situation regarding use and application of probabilistic forecasts in the power industry in order to estimate and deal with uncertainties. A set of experts in with expertise in probabilistic forecasting are collecting information from the industry in order to identify areas, where progress is needed and where it is difficult to achieve further progress. By combining this information with their expert knowledge, white papers and practical recommendations for the industry will be formulated and published.
Uncertainty in wind power forecasting and other renewable energies are an aspect that grows with increasing penetration of these sources into our energy mix. Once a certain level is reached, not knowing when we can trust in forecasts or not, is becoming expensive in terms of reserve requirements, but also can become dangerous in terms of grid stability. The flexibility requirements in both the grid handling and the remaining generation capacity are also increasing and require tools and mechanisms that can predict to a large extend and assist in decision making. It is only if we can prepare and are warned about a given situation that we can act rational and efficient. Therefore, we need to understand these new needs in order to serve the industry and to guide research towards development of the tools that will be needed in the future.

Along the way, workshops and special sessions will be used to communicate to and exchange results with the industry, interested stake holders and individuals and to stimulate vivid discussions all around the world.

Phase 1: Collection of Information
The first part of this task is to collect information about the state-of-the-art in using and applying forecasting tools in general and tools to deal with uncertainty of wind power production and other Renewables.
For this purpose we have compiled a set of interview questions for different branches in the power industry. The interviews and a short instruction on how to submit can be downloaded from a Dropbox here. Instructions for the submission of the documents to us can be found inside the document.

As long as the documents reside in the above dropbox, participation is welcome and appreciated.

It is our hope that we get a world wide participation in this phase in order to find the challenges and gaps that may prevent progress, where it's needed and to find synergies and solutions by using each others experience when searching for solutions.

Phase 2: Analysis of Results
Our analysis of the interviews will be a work-in-progress. As soon as we have a critical number of interviews, we will start our analysis of the answers. In that process, we may also refine some of the questions and re-launch interview questions. Most important in this process is that we get an understanding of the different views and practices around the world and the different challenges that are observed and experienced.

Phase 3: Communication and Dissemination
In the third phase we will communicate our findings at workshops, seminars, conferences and in white papers and publications. This phase is also a work-in-progress, as we will report and use a number of platforms to communicate our findings and to stimulate discussions on the topic.
An important aspect and focus in the communication will be real cases and help and recommendations in how to analyse and to combine information from one point in the delivery chain to the next.

  • Aim: Document current use of probabilistic forecasts.

  • Partners: WEPROG, Vaisala, EDF, DIT, INESC TEC, Smartwatt, KVT. 


Corinna Möhrlen
WEPROG, Weather and Energy Prognoses
17 FEBRUARY 2019