Probabilistic Forecast Games

The IEA Wind Task 36 provides here a collection of probabilistic forecasting games in order to 

  1. Discuss
  2. Educate
  3. Inspire the energy and meteorology community for the development, deployment and commmunication of uncertainties of weather and energy forecasts to end-users for better decision making. 

Uncertainty is inherent in each and every forecast. Not considering uncertainty is just ignoring a fact that is present in every released weather- and/or energy forecast. 
By dealing with uncertainties in our own specific and individual application, we can make better decisions, as we do no longer put responsibility to those that have no possibility to evaluate the uncertainty a certain forecast may cause in your own application. 
Dealing with uncertainties means taking responsibility and opens a whole new world of possibilities! 

For this reason, the IEA Wind Task 36 promotes testing and playing with forecast games to get a “feel” of where the hidden possibilities are to improve your decisions. 

Ths list is composed of our own developed games and games developed in cooperation or by cooperating institutions, researchers or companies. Anybody is invited to play and to contribute with links or feedback to the coordinating team Corinna Möhrlen and Ricardo Bessa.

Forecast Game Short Description Link
Wind Power Trading decisions for an Offshore Wind Park  IEA Wind Task 36 and MPI for Human Development have released a forecast game at the IEA Wind Task 36 Glasgow workshop in Jan 2020. 

The game investigates how useful different forecasts are for wind power trading decisions in a simplified way.

In the game, the player is asked to make trading decisions for an offshore wind farm in the Northsea in a number of situations based on deterministic and probabilistic power and wind forecasts.

Forecast Game

Forecast Game Results

Note: At present, there is no automatic update of the results, except for the 2 tables once you finished the game. We will be updating the results regularly and be back with news about the game and possibly an update in the near future. 
Forecast game introduction presentation:

IEA Wind Task 36 YouTube channel at time: 3:03:00.

Presentation Download

Call for Water Game

In the game the player is managing a water supply reservoir!
 
Purpose of the Game is to train with forecast information and improve decision-making. 

The player is newly appointed water manager for a reservoir that serves water uses for a town and is responsible to secure sufficient water for the town at a specific time. 

The game is played in  two rounds of 5 years each.

Forecast Game

License conditions Creative Commons CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0
 

HEPEX Forecast Game
“Pathways to running a flood forecasting centre: an adventure game”

The game simulates the responsibilities of a water management centre in charge of protecting a city against floods. 

The game is investigting what kind of information is needed and how many days in advance the forecast information is good enough to make a decision that could save lives and money. 

Forecast Game

A blog post on the game was published in the Imprex project website
 
Reference: Arnal et al. (EGU 2017 abstract)

Feuerwache 
(only available in German)
The game’s aim is to well users understand and are able to make use of the uncertainty of weather forecasts

The task of the game is to decide on 16 days, whether or not to request more firefighters for the next 21 hours to handle additional missions in predicted storm events.
Forecast Game

 

Offline Games

  HEPEX Forecast Games   
Water Management Game The game experiment focuses on risk-based decision-making in water management using probabilistic forecasts of inflows to a reservoir
Download:
English (original version), German 

Reference: Crochemore et al., 2015 

HEPEX blog post
Peak Box Game

The “Peak Box” game supports interpretation and verification of operational ensemble peak-flow forecasts, proposed by Zappa and colleagues, and encourages discussions of the use of ensemble predictions in operational hydrology.

The Peak-Box defines the “best estimate” of a flood event’s timing and magnitude by framing the discharge peaks of all members of an ensemble forecast and taking their median in timing and magnitude.

Download: Peak Box Game 

Reference: Zappa et al., 2013 

HEPEX blog post
 
Pay-for-a-forecast Game

This game was originally created as a paper game to be played during the Ensemble hydro-meteorological forecasting session at the EGU Assembly in 2015. It was designed to contribute to the understanding of the role of probabilistic forecasts in decision-making processes and to look at the perceived value of the forecasts by the decision-makers for flood protection mitigation.

This was achieved by giving the participants a set of probabilistic forecasts of their river level, with which they had to decide whether to buy flood protection. The participants’ willingness-to-pay for probabilistic forecasts was also evaluated during the game through an auction, where forecasts were no longer given but sold, and in a limited number.

Download (play with paper version): Pay for a forecast game 

Download (play online version): Online Pay-for-a-forecast game instructions 

Reference: Arnal et al., 2016 
HEPEX blog post 

 Flood Control Game

The game is about the  management of a flood protection constract, where the user has to manage a gate which is the inlet of a retention basin with the help of deterministic and probabilistic forecasts of the river water level.

The user has to decide whether to open the gate or not.

Download

For more information and other languages check the HEPEX page

Paper: “Do probabilistic forecasts lead to better decision making"
 

The Shopkeepers dilemma: a decision-making game using probabilistic forecasts In the game, three different shop-keepers were presented with a series of seven forecasts, each providing participants with the forecast probability that they and their shop could be flooded. They are asked to make one of three decisions for each forecast; choosing between taking no action; raising temporary defences on the embankment between their shop and the river; or moving their inventory. Except for doing nothing, all actions came at a cost. But flooding also caused a loss.

Download: Shopkeepers Dilemma Game

EGU 2017 Abstract and Poster (PDF) 

HEPEX blog post

 

 

Lead

Corinna Möhrlen
WEPROG, Weather and Energy Prognoses
https://www.ieawindforecasting.dk/work-packages/workpackage-3/probabilistic-forecast-games
2 AUGUST 2021